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We explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012212851
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the coefficient in the Phillips curve on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636803
consequences for inflation of setting interest rates aimed at mitigating financial losses, showing that such a strategy would lead … to substantially higher inflation rates. Overall, our findings confirm that a central bank's willingness to accept …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015176976
This study tests for the state-dependent response of monetary policy to increases in overall financial stress and financial sector-specific stress across a panel of advanced and emerging economy central banks. We use a factor-augmented dynamic panel threshold regression model with (estimated)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636194
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of monetary policy in a severe recession and deflation when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero. We compare two alternative proposals for ameliorating the effect of the zero bound: an exchange-rate peg and price-level targeting. We conduct this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639404
We find evidence that adopting an explicit inflation objective plays a role in anchoring long-run inflation … expectations and in reducing the intrinsic persistence of inflation. For the period 1994-2003, private-sector long-run inflation … forecasts exhibit significant correlation with lagged inflation for a number of industrial economies, including the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639437
situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639841
impact of the zero bound on the effectiveness of interest rate policy in Japan in terms of stabilizing output and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639849
estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640402
differ in their "lower-for-longer" commitment as well as policymaker preferences regarding inflation and output volatility … strategies would call for anticipated timing of the start of the hiking cycle: earlier tightening would prevent inflation from … peaking at 10%, but the forceful tightening since 2022:Q3 prevented higher inflation from becoming entrenched. However, once …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014527121