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The Phillips curve at the ECB
Eser, Fabian; Karadi, Peter; Lane, Philip R.; Moretti, Laura - 2020
We explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012212851
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Mind the output gap : the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area
Groß, Marco; Semmler, Willi - Task Force on Low Inflation (LIFT) - 2017
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the coefficient in the Phillips curve on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636803
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Opting out of the Great Inflation : German monetary policy after the break down of Bretton Woods
Beyer, Andreas; Gaspar, Vítor; Gerberding, Christina - 2009
During the turbulent 1970s and 1980s the Bundesbank established an outstanding reputation in the world of central … interpreted, first and foremost, as a commitment device. In our setting, a monetary target helps anchoring inflation and inflation … well as a strong response to deviations of inflation from target and to the activity growth gap. In contrast, the response …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831853
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Exchange-rate policy and the zero bound on nominal interest rates
Coenen, Günter; Wieland, Volker - 2004
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of monetary policy in a severe recession and deflation when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero. We compare two alternative proposals for ameliorating the effect of the zero bound: an exchange-rate peg and price-level targeting. We conduct this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639404
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Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes
Levin, Andrew T.; Natalucci, Fabio M.; Piger, Jeremy M. - 2004
We find evidence that adopting an explicit inflation objective plays a role in anchoring long-run inflation … expectations and in reducing the intrinsic persistence of inflation. For the period 1994-2003, private-sector long-run inflation … forecasts exhibit significant correlation with lagged inflation for a number of industrial economies, including the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639437
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quantifying and forecasting inflation risks
Kilian, Lutz; Manganelli, Simone - 2003
situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639841
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The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan
Coenen, Günter; Wieland, Volker - 2003
impact of the zero bound on the effectiveness of interest rate policy in Japan in terms of stabilizing output and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639849
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Real time estimates of the euro area output gap
Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - 2010
estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640402
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Credibility gains from communicating with the public : evidence from the ECB's new monetary policy strategy
Ehrmann, Michael; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Kenny, Geoff - 2023
We show that the announcement of the ECB's Strategy Review and the revision of its inflation target in summer 2021 went … persistent credibility gains, even after inflation increased. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013553462
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Monetary policy strategies to navigate post-pandemic inflation : an assessment using the ECB's New Area-Wide Model
Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Kornprobst, Antoine; … - 2024
differ in their "lower-for-longer" commitment as well as policymaker preferences regarding inflation and output volatility … strategies would call for anticipated timing of the start of the hiking cycle: earlier tightening would prevent inflation from … peaking at 10%, but the forceful tightening since 2022:Q3 prevented higher inflation from becoming entrenched. However, once …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014527121