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estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying parameters. We use this method to study the timevarying relationship …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156426
model. Second, we study whether both returns and volatility of bank stock prices changes upon the disclosure of stress tests … in returns and an increase in volatility, while the reverse holds true for banks performing well. Banks performing … correlation between bank abnormal returns or equity volatility and stress test performance, which experiences a steady increase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013342212
following the auctions. This effect is stronger when market volatility is higher. We rationalize both findings using a simple …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011647972
We test whether a simple measure of corporate insolvency based on equity return volatility - and denoted as Distance to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013448706
Commodity prices co-move, but the strength of this co-movement changes over time due to structural factors, like changing energy intensity in production and consumption as well as changing composition of underlying shocks. This paper explores whether econometric models that exploit this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486704
This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting in ation risks. The proposed parametric methodology bridges the empirically established benefits of TVP regressions for forecasting in ation with the ability of quantile regression to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012643282
traditional carry trade returns, such as exchange rate volatility, fail to explain curvy trade returns in a linear asset pricing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011856388
We assess the ability of yield curve factors to predict risk premia in short-term interest rates and exchange rates across a large sample of major advanced economies. We find that the same tick-shaped linear combination of (relative) bond yields predicts risk premia in both short-term interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011802134
We decompose euro area sovereign bond yields into five distinct components: i) expected future short-term risk-free rates and a term premium, ii) default risk premium, iii) redenomination risk premium, iv) liquidity risk premium, and a v) segmentation (convenience) premium. Iden- tification is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012519519
We propose a dynamic semi-parametric framework to study time variation in tail parameters. The framework builds on the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for modeling peaks over thresholds as in Extreme Value Theory, but casts the model in a conditional framework to allow for time-variation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012429187