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In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with timevarying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156426
FTSE MIB index and its volatility, is examined using a trivariate Vector Autoregressive model, taking into account the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015179749
model. Second, we study whether both returns and volatility of bank stock prices changes upon the disclosure of stress tests … in returns and an increase in volatility, while the reverse holds true for banks performing well. Banks performing … correlation between bank abnormal returns or equity volatility and stress test performance, which experiences a steady increase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013342212
We propose a new approach to measuring the effect of unobservable private information or beliefs on volatility. Using … high-frequency intraday data, we estimate the volatility effect of a well identified shock on the volatility of the stock … that, as the publicly available information becomes stale, volatility effects and its persistence should increase, as the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003396704
and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003747965
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future crises, consistent with the volatility paradox. The results emphasize the dynamics of loss spillovers as an important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015176897