We analyze the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area during the post-crisis period, with a …. Using a new estimation technique, we look at tail co-movements between short- and long-term distributions of inflation … expectations, estimated from daily quotes of inflation derivatives. We find that, during 2014, average correlations between short …

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

We analyze the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area during the post-crisis period, with a …. Using a new estimation technique, we look at tail co-movements between short- and long-term distributions of inflation … expectations, estimated from daily quotes of inflation derivatives. We find that, during 2014, average correlations between short …

, premium components are less reactive to a typical 10 bp increase in inflation, while real rate responses change their sign …

, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model … much of the inflation dynamics in the 2012-2014 euro area missing inflation episode. Consequently, economists and models … that excessively focused on the global nature of inflation were liable to miss the contribution of deflationary domestic …

assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations, and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission's Consumer … Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive inflation with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on …

The aim of this study is to assess empirically to what extent the degree of heterogeneity of consumers’ inflation … become more pronounced since the introduction of the common currency. -- Inflation expectations ; heterogeneity ; survey data …

inflation expectations and consumer spending. We document that for the Euro Area and almost all of its constituent countries … this relationship is generally positive: a higher expected change in inflation is associated with an increase in the … probabilities from our micro-level analysis, we indirectly estimate the impact of a gradual increase in inflation expectations on …