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This paper presents a set of probability density functions for Euribor outturns in three months’ time, estimated from the prices of options on Euribor futures. It is the first official and freely available dataset to span the complete history of Euribor futures options, thus comprising over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008901645
We build a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility and use it to decompose the … common global uncertainty plays a primary role in explaining the volatility of inflation, interest rates and stock prices …, although to a varying extent over time. Region-specific uncertainty drives most of the exchange rate volatility for all Euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011856363
Trend inflation estimates for 12 of the largest Asian economies over 1995-2018 offer important insights on inflation dynamics and inflation expectations. The disinflationary shocks that hit the region since 2014 were partly transitory, but their effects have been different depending on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012132591
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with timevarying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156426
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001749468
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001735709
of such exercises. - Bayesian VARs ; time-varying parameters ; stochastic volatility ; identified VARs ; Great Inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003969295
This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503567
with time-varying loading coefficients and stochastic volatility, which allows for capturing changes in the pricing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637545
We lay out an empirical and a theoretical model to analyze the effects of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility on … of the conditional exogenous exchange rate volatility on the conditional mean of the endogenous variables in our open … empirically. In the second part, we investigate the effect of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility in a stochastic open …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636551