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This paper develops a theory of the credit cycle to account for recent evidence that capital is increasingly allocated to inefficiently risky projects over the course of the boom. The model features lenders who sell risk exposure to non-lender investors in order to relax borrowing constraints,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636206
Traditionally, insurers are seen as stabilisers of financial markets that act countercyclically by buying assets whose price falls. Recent studies challenge this view by providing empirical evidence of procyclicality. This paper sheds new light on the underlying reasons for these opposing views....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034502
I show that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles. I find that distortions become especially severe when considering medium-term cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813473
This paper proposes a semi-structural approach to identifying excessive household credit developments. Using an overlapping generations model, a normative trend level for the real household credit stock is derived that depends on four fundamental economic factors: real potential GDP, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928898
We develop a new theory of information production during credit booms. In our model, entrepreneurs need credit to undertake investment projects, some of which enable them to divert resources towards private consumption. Lenders can protect themselves from such diversion in two ways:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997468
We propose the CoJPoD, a novel framework explicitly linking the cross-sectional and cyclical dimensions of systemic risk. In this framework, banking sector distress in the form of the joint probability of default of financial intermediaries (reflecting contagion from both direct and indirect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013332831
model. Second, we study whether both returns and volatility of bank stock prices changes upon the disclosure of stress tests … in returns and an increase in volatility, while the reverse holds true for banks performing well. Banks performing … correlation between bank abnormal returns or equity volatility and stress test performance, which experiences a steady increase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013342212
We assess the quantitative implications of collateral re-use on leverage, volatility, and welfare within an infinite … used to back more transactions. Re-use thus contributes to the buildup of leverage and significantly increases volatility in … financial markets. When introducing limits on re-use, we find that volatility is strictly decreasing as these limits become …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011959258
Using household survey data, we document evidence of a loosening of credit standards in Euro area countries that experienced a property price boom-and-bust cycle. Borrowers in these countries exhibited significantly higher loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios in the run up to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009077
This paper identifies the various channels that give rise to a "sovereign-bank nexus" whereby the financial health of banks and sovereigns is intertwined. We find that banks and sovereigns are linked by three interacting channels: banks hold large amounts of sovereign debt; banks are protected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901498