find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

affected temporarily. Inflation forecasts made by Eurosystem/ECB staff perform similarly or slightly better than those from our …

This paper investigates the impact of ECB communication of its assessment of the economic outlook on ex-ante inflation … forecasts of inflation) but also makes forecasters less uncertain about their own beliefs, thus reducing ex-ante average … individual uncertainty. By combining and exploiting these types of ex-ante inflation uncertainty, results suggest that central …

The link between US labor cost and price inflation has weakened notably over the past three decades. In this paper we … economy of late: (i) improved anchoring of inflation expectations; (ii) the changing constellation of shocks hitting the … economy; (iii) increased trade integration and (iv) rising firm market power. We find that the improved anchoring of inflation …

growth regime. Since the great financial crisis inflation developments have posed major puzzles to economists as inflation … paper analyses whether the wage-price pass-through may have contributed to these inflation puzzles. Applying the Threshold … or diminish the puzzle of the missing disinflation of the past two recessions suggesting that inflation should be …

Consumers' inflation expectations play a key role in the monetary transmission mechanism. As such, it is crucial for … as means to shed light on some of the more puzzling aspects of reported quantitative inflation perceptions and … expectations. These include the apparent overestimation of inflation by consumers as well as the negative correlation observed …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …