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This paper derives forecasts for euro area real GDP growth based on a bottom up approach from the production side. That is, GDP is forecast via the forecasts of value added across the different branches of activity, which is quite new in the literature. Linear regression models in the form of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003825975
This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries' business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831782
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003297519
The purpose of his paper is to evaluate the empirical relevance of real convergence on the process of nominal convergence for the new EU Member States. We discuss two of the main channels through which real convergence could affect relative prices with respect to the euro area productivity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003599436
This paper analyses the determinants of inflation differentials and price levels across the euro area countries …. Dynamic panel estimations for the period 1999-2006 show that inflation differentials are primarily determined by cyclical … positions and inflation persistence. The persistence in inflation differentials appears to be partly explained by administered …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003969278
We analyse the impact of fiscal policy shocks in the euro area as a whole, using a newly available quarterly dataset of fiscal variables for the period 1981-2007. To allow for comparability with previous results on euro area countries and the US, we use a standard structural VAR framework, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003969292
growth regime. Since the great financial crisis inflation developments have posed major puzzles to economists as inflation … paper analyses whether the wage-price pass-through may have contributed to these inflation puzzles. Applying the Threshold … or diminish the puzzle of the missing disinflation of the past two recessions suggesting that inflation should be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012305400
This paper presents empirical evidence of the effect of FDI inflows on productivity convergence in central and eastern Europe, using industry-level data. Four conclusions stand out. First, there is a strong convergence effect in productivity, both at the country and at the industry level....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003826485
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001554401
The move to monetary union in Europe led to convergence of interest rates among the participating countries. This was associated with notable cross-country differences in the behaviour of key macroeconomic aggregates. Compared to the low interest rate countries, former high interest rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003790953