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Can non-linear real shocks explain the persistence of PPP exchange rate disequilibria?
Peltonen, Tuomo; Popescu, Adina; Sager, Michael - 2009
A core stylized fact of the empirical exchange rate literature is that half-life deviations of equilibrium real exchange rates from levels implied by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) are very persistent. Empirical efforts to explain this persistence typically proceed along two distinct paths,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867086
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Productivity shocks and real exchange rate : a reappraisal
Peltonen, Tuomo; Sager, Michael - 2009
We reappraise the relationship between productivity and equilibrium real exchange rates using a panel estimation framework that incorporates a large number of countries and importantly, a dataset that allows explicit consideration of the role of non-traded, as well as traded, sector productivity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832627
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Does the euro make a difference? : spatio-temporal transmission of global shocks to real effective exchange rates in an infinite VAR
Bussière, Matthieu; Chudik, Alexander; Mehl, Arnaud - 2011
dollar shock, generalised impulse response function shocks and a global shock to risk aversion. Our results show that the way … depends crucially on the nature of the shock. This result is noteworthy given the apparent divergence in competitiveness …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008901483
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Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin
Ca'Zorzi, Michele; Rubaszek, Michał - 2018
This paper shows that there are two regularities in foreign exchange markets in advanced countries with flexible regimes. First, real exchange rates are mean-reverting, as implied by the Purchasing Power Parity model. Second, the adjustment takes place via nominal exchange rates. These features...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011856403
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Bond market co-movements, expected inflation and the equilibrium real exchange rate
Macchiarelli, Corrado - 2011
Since the end of the fixed rates in 1973 and after the EMS sterling dismissal in 1992, the value of the pound has undergone large cyclical fluctuations on average. Of particular interest to policy makers is the understanding of whether such movements are consistent with the lack or not of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009405600
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The predictive power of equilibrium exchange rate models
Ca'Zorzi, Michele; Cap, Adam; Mijakovic, Andrej; … - 2020
In this paper we evaluate the predictive power of the three most popular equilibrium exchange rate concepts: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and the Macroeconomic Balance (MB) approach. We show that there is a clear trade-off between storytelling and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012139745
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Boosting carry with equilibrium exchange rate estimates
Rubaszek, Michał; Beckmann, Joscha; Ca'Zorzi, Michele; … - 2022
We build currency portfolios based on the paradigm that exchange rates slowly converge to their equilibrium to highlight three results. First, this property can be exploited to build profitable portfolios. Second, the slow pace of convergence at short-horizons is consistent with the evidence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013375145
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Exchange rate shocks and inflation comovement in the euro area
Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Martínez-Martín, Jaime; Ortega, Eva - 2020
This paper decomposes the time-varying effect of exogenous exchange rate shocks on euro area countries in ation into country-specific (idiosyncratic) and region-wide (common) components. To do so, we propose a exible empirical framework based on dynamic factor models subject to drifting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181317
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Global risk and the dollar
Georgiadis, Georgios; Müller, Gernot J.; Schumann, Ben - 2021
How does global risk impact the world economy? In taking up this question, we focus on the dollar’s role in the international adjustment mechanism. First, we rely on high-frequency surprises in the price of gold to identify the effects of global risk shocks in a Bayesian Proxy VAR model. They...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705529
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E pluribus plures : shock dependency of the USD pass-through to real and financial variables
Ferrari, Massimo Minesso; Gräb, Johannes - 2022
in a panel of 34 countries. Pass-through coefficients are highly shock-dependent: if the appreciation is driven by a US … expansionary shock, the positive effects of stronger global demand - the "real" channel-dominate the negative effects of a stronger … stock valuations up to 2.2 (2.5) and 8% (15%) respectively, while if the appreciation is driven by a monetary policy shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013285964