We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the coefficient in the Phillips curve on the …

linked to the monetary policy regime. Before and after the "Great Inflation", nominal wages moved in the same direction as … the (required) adjustment of real wages, and in the opposite direction of the price response. During the "Great Inflation … increasing inflation volatility. Using a standard DSGE model, we show that these stylized facts, in particular the estimated …

principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation … measure is the scaled common persistent factor in inflation and excess nominal money growth and bears the interpretation of … monetary inflation. The proposed measure is characterised by all the properties that an u0093idealu0094 core inflation process …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation … can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate. - Inflation ; Inflation Uncertainty ; Time …

consequences for inflation of setting interest rates aimed at mitigating financial losses, showing that such a strategy would lead … to substantially higher inflation rates. Overall, our findings confirm that a central bank's willingness to accept …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … measure appears superior to all others in all respects. - Output gap ; real-time data ; euro area ; inflation forecasts ; real …

differ in their "lower-for-longer" commitment as well as policymaker preferences regarding inflation and output volatility … strategies would call for anticipated timing of the start of the hiking cycle: earlier tightening would prevent inflation from … peaking at 10%, but the forceful tightening since 2022:Q3 prevented higher inflation from becoming entrenched. However, once …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation …