Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular contemporary interest to central banks, especially those … pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of direct inflation targeting. Macroeconomic theory indicates that the … to properties of inflation expectations. Qualitative data on inflation expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be …

Can the aging process affect inflation? The prolonged decline of fertility and mortality rates induces a persistent … downward pressure on the natural interest rate. If this development is not internalized by the monetary policy rule, inflation … inflation found in the data for the euro area. In this model, continuing to follow the same rule makes inflation to be on a …

Inflation in the euro area has been falling since mid-2013, turned negative at the end of 2014 and remained below … by means of sign restrictions, to inflation and economic activity. Shocks to oil supply do not tell the full story about … contractionary. A country analysis confirms that the negative effects of oil supply and monetary policy shocks on inflation was …

This paper studies the effect of monetary policy on inflation along the income distribution in several euro area …. On the one hand, different consumption shares imply that inflation by high-income households responds less to monetary … its reaction to monetary policy, which imply that inflation by high-income households responds more to monetary policy. …

-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds … extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We … find that adding financial frictions leads to a deterioration in the forecasts, with the exception of longer-term inflation …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the coefficient in the Phillips curve on the …