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Forecasting macroeconomic risk in real time : great and Covid-19 recessions
De Santis, Roberto A.; Van der Veken, Wouter - 2020
We show that financial variables contribute to the forecast of GDP growth during the Great Recession, providing additional insights on both first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. If a recession is due to an unforeseen shock (such as the Covid-19 recession), financial variables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241245
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Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery : lessons from the financial crisis
Foroni, Claudia; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Stevanović, … - 2020
We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012285550
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Did COVID-19 induce a reallocation wave?
Consolo, Agostino; Petroulakis, Filippos - 2022
Recent research has argued that the COVID-19 shock has also brought about a reallocation shock. We examine the evidence for such an occurrence in the United States, taking a broad perspective. We first consider micro data from CPS and JOLTS; there is no noticeable uptick in occupation or sector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013332899
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Was unofficial dollarisation/euroisation an amplifier of the "Great Recession" of 2007 - 09 in emerging economies
Chiţu, Livia - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765967
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Leaning against the global financial cycle
Ferrero, Andrea; Habib, Maurizio Michael; Stracca, Livio; … - 2022
We study the role and the interaction of the quality of institutions and of counter-cyclical policies in leaning against the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) in Emerging Economies (EMEs). We show that heteroegeneity in institutional strength is a key determinant of the different effects of the GFC...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013488632
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What drives business cycles and international trade in emerging market economies?
Sánchez, Marcelo (contributor) - 2007
developments in fifteen emerging market economies. Results from signrestricted VARs show that developments in real output …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003422818
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The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies : measures of finance-adjusted output gaps
Grintzalis, Ioannis; Lodge, David; Manu, Ana-Simona - 2017
We present estimates of finance-adjusted output gaps which incorporate the information on the domestic and global …-space representation of an HP filter augmented with a measure of the credit gap to estimate finance-adjusted output gaps. We measure the … movements in output. In the current circumstances, the estimates suggest that if financing and credit conditions were to tighten …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637326
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Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets
Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur; Falagiarda, Matteo; … - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349813
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Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions
Bondt, Gabe J. de; Vermeulen, Philip - 2018
We estimate business cycle regime switching logit models for G7 countries to determine the effect of duration of the … falls into a recession. We also find that expansions in the US and Germany are duration dependent, i.e. are more likely to … end as they grow older. This contrasts with other G7 countries where expansions are not duration dependent. With respect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011937263
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The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis
Christiano, Lawrence; Motto, Roberto; Rostagno, Massimo - 2004
We evaluate the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis that a more accommodative monetary policy could have greatly reduced the severity of the Great Depression. To do this, we first estimate a dynamic, general equilibrium model using data from the 1920s and 1930s. Although the model includes eight...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636549