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Demographics and the natural real interest rate : historical and projected paths for the euro area
Papetti, Andrea - 2019
This paper employs an aggregate representation of an overlapping generation (OLG) model quantifying a decrease of the natural real interest rate in the range of -1.7 and -0.4 percentage points in the euro area between 1990 and 2030 due to demographics alone. Two channels contribute to this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011994650
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On secular stagnation and low interest rates : demography matters
Ferrero, Giuseppe; Groß, Marco; Neri, Stefano - 2017
Nominal and real interest rates in advanced economies have been decreasing since the mid-1980s and reached historical low levels in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Understanding why interest rates have fallen is essential for both monetary policy and financial stability. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011697366
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Model misspecification, the equilibrium natural interest rate and the equity premium
Tristani, Oreste (contributor) - 2007
This paper analyses the determinants of the natural rate of interest in a nonlinear model where agents are uncertain over both future technology growth and the future course of monetary policy. I show that the real natural rate can be affected by sizable uncertainty premia, including premia...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003554327
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Consumer savings behaviour at low and negative interest rates
Felici, Marco; Kenny, Geoff; Friz, Roberta - 2022
We study interest rates transmission to savings at low and negative rates. Exploiting cohorts of consumers from a data …-rich multi-country survey, we show how the strength of interest rate transmission to savings varies with the level of nominal … levels, there is evidence that the savings response may even reverse sign. Such a "savings' reversal" is consistent with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013375223
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The reception of public signals in financial markets : what if central bank communication becomes stale?
Ehrmann, Michael; Sondermann, David - 2009
How do financial markets price new information? This paper analyzes price setting at the intersection of private and public information, by testing whether and how the reaction of financial markets to public signals depends on the relative importance of private information in agents’...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003963731
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Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance
Ardagna, Silvia (contributor) - 2004
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002554820
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The natural rate of interest and the financial cycle
Krustev, Georgi - 2018
I extend the model of Laubach and Williams (2003) by introducing an explicit role for the financial cycle in the joint estimation of the natural rates of interest, unemployment and output, and the sustainable growth rate of the US economy. By incorporating the financial cycle - arguably an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011871950
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Macro and micro of external finance premium and monetary policy transmission
Altavilla, Carlo; Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Quaedvlieg, Rogier - 2024
We establish basic facts about the external finance premium. Tens of millions of individual loan contracts extended to euro area firms allow studying the determinants of the external finance premium at the country, bank, firm, and contract levels of disaggregation. At the country level, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014527119
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Interest rate-growth differentials on government debt : an empirical investigation for the euro area
Checherita-Westphal, Cristina; Domingues Semeano, João - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012306620
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Economic consequences of high public debt: evidence from three large scale DSGE models
Burriel, Pablo; Checherita-Westphal, Cristina; … - 2020
The paper reviews the economic risks associated with regimes of high public debt through DSGE model simulations. The large public debt build-up following the 2009 global financial and economic crisis acted as a shock absorber for output, while in the recent and more severe COVID19-crisis, an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251324