find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating … households does not lead to systematic improvements in forecast performance. Individual models we consider are typically better …

behaviour of these expectations. We show that the introduction of survey and financial market-based forecasts in the estimation … improves the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of the model. Furthermore, we evaluate the case for introducing a discount factor …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … estimated slack or by estimates from international economic institutions; (iii) external variables do not bring forecast gains …

We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to … findings and analyse why forecasting the aggregate using information on its disaggregate components improves forecast accuracy … of the aggregate forecast of euro area and US inflation in some situations, but not in others …

higher than that resulting from model and estimation uncertainty only. In particular, the evidence indicates that both the … output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap … forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. No single output gap …

The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap … ; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis …