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International medium-term business cycles

Hirschbühl, Dominik; Spitzer, Martin - 2021

Foreign driven medium-term oscillations that originate from uctuations in technological frontier countries gained widespread attention among policymakers. To study this phenomenon in the context of domestic and other foreign drivers of the euro area business cycle, we develop a medium-scale,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012499631

ECB-(RE)BASE: heterogeneity in expectation formation and macroeconomic dynamics

Adjemian, Stéphane; Bokan, Nikola; Darracq Pariès, … - 2024

This paper introduces ECB-(RE)BASE as the model-consistent, or rational expectation version of the ECB-BASE model. It brings new analytical capabilities to consider varying degrees of heterogeneity in expectation formation across the agents of the model. While the original version of ECB-BASE...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015159580

Fiscal policy in the semi-structural model ECB-BASE

Bańkowski, Krzysztof - 2023

Fiscal policy constitutes a key tool for business cycle stabilisation next to monetary policy. In this context, having a well-suited macroeconomic model for analysing fiscal policy at a central bank is of primary importance. This paper documents the fiscal block of the ECB-BASE, which is a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278636

Wages, compositional effects and the business cycle

Christodoulopoulou, Styliani; Kouvavas, Omiros - 2022

During the Great Recession, unemployment increased substantially across several euro area countries, with wages exhibiting a muted response. As low skilled workers lose their jobs first during a recession, the remaining employed workers result in a relatively more skilled employment pool. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012939678

Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown in the euro area

Schmöller, Michaela; Spitzer, Martin - 2020

, total factor productivity evolves endogenously as a consequence of costly investment in R&D and adoption of new technologies … mechanism between overall economic conditions and investment in productivity-enhancing technologies. As to the sources of the … euro area productivity slowdown, we conclude that a decrease in the efficiency of R&D investment is among the key factors …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012212852

Labour market skills, endogenous productivity and business cycles

Abbritti, Mirko; Consolo, Agostino - 2022

This paper analyses how labour market heterogeneity affects unemployment, productivity and business cycle dynamics that … skilled workers increases the natural rate of unemployment and reduces total factor productivity with long- run effects on the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012880717

Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles

Smets, Frank; Wouters, Raf - 2004

This paper estimates a DSGE model with many types of shocks and frictions for both the US and the euro area economy over a common sample period (1974-2002). The structural estimation methodology allows us to investigate whether differences in business cycle behaviour are due to differences in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639451

ECB-BASIR: a primer on the macroeconomic implications of the Covid-19 pandemic

Angelini, Elena; Damjanović, Milan; Darracq Pariès, … - 2020

This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and makes a first step in adapting the central bank modelling apparatus to the new economic landscape. We augment the ECB-BASE model with the predictive dynamics of the SIR model in order to assess the interplay between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241217

Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession?

Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał; Jacquinot, Pascal; Kolasa, Marcin - 2010

Euro-area accession caused boom-bust cycles in several catching-up economies. Declining interest rates and easier financing conditions fuelled spending and worsened the current account balance. Over time inflation deteriorated external competitiveness and lowered domestic demand, turning the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008771781

The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy

Christoffel, Kai; Küster, Keith; Linzert, Tobias - 2009

In this paper, we explore the role of labor markets for monetary policy in the euro area in a New Keynesian model in which labor markets are characterized by search and matching frictions. We first investigate to which extent a more flexible labor market would alter the business cycle behaviour...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832582