We propose a Hawkish-Dovish (HD) indicator that measures the degree of 'hawkishness' or 'dovishness' of the media's perception of the ECB's tone at each press conference. We compare two methods to calculate the indicator: semantic orientation and Support Vector Machines text classification. We...

This paper shows that newspaper articles contain timely economic signals that can materially improve nowcasts of real GDP growth for the euro area. Our text data is drawn from fifteen popular European newspapers, that collectively represent the four largest Euro area economies, and are machine...

This paper discusses a wide range of indicators of the degree of integration of the euro area banking system. It is concerned with volume data, a less developed field of research compared with studies on prices/rates. We first set out a methodological framework, a mixture of elementary and more...

Using data on syndicated loans, we find that the introduction of a carbon tax is associated with an increase in domestic banks' lending to coal, oil, and gas companies in foreign countries. This effect is particularly pronounced for banks with large prior fossil-lending exposures, suggesting a...

We provide a simple and tractable accounting-based stress-testing framework to assess loss dynamics in the banking sector, in a context of leverage targeting. Contagion can occur through direct interbank exposures, and indirect exposures due to overlapping portfolios with the associated price...

The paper identifies the business models followed by banks in the euro area, utilising a proprietary dataset collected in the context of the supervisory reporting of the Single Supervisory Mechanism. The concept of a 'business model' has been neglected by economic theory and is defined here with...

We study the interplay between two channels of interconnectedness in the banking system. The first one is a direct interconnectedness, via a network of interbank loans, banks' loans to other corporate and retail clients, and securities holdings. The second channel is an indirect...

We present a tractable framework to assess the systemic implications of bail-in. To this end, we construct a multi-layered network model where each layer represents the securities cross holdings of a specific seniority among the largest euro area banking groups. On this basis, the bail-in of a...

Interconnectedness is an inherent feature of the modern financial system. While it contributes to efficiency of financial services, it also creates structural vulnerabilities: pernicious shock transmission and amplification impacting banks' capitalization. This has recently been seen during the...

We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction by applying machine learning techniques to macrofinancial data for 17 countries over 1870–2016. Most nonlin-ear machine learning models outperform logistic regression in out-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify...