Against the background of the rapid integration of emerging Asia into the global economy, this paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in driving individual emerging economies in Asia. We estimate VAR models for ten countries over the period 1979Q1-2003Q4, controlling for...

Inflation volatility is clearly important for structural analysis, forecasting and policy purposes, yet it is often overlooked in the literature. This paper compares in ation volatility among advanced open economies with in ation targeting monetary policy frameworks. The results of the empirical...

The paper shows that US monetary policy has been an important determinant of global equity markets. Analysing 50 equity markets worldwide, we find that returns fall on average around 3.8% in response to a 100 basis point tightening of US monetary policy, ranging from a zero response in some to a...

This paper considers a stylized asset pricing model where the returns from exchange rates, stocks and bonds are linked by basic risk-arbitrage relationships. Employing GMM estimation and monthly data for 18 economies and the US (treated as the domestic country), we identify through a simple test...

This paper endeavours to provide a comprehensive analysis of the nature and the possible importance of global excess liquidityʺ, a concept which has attracted considerable attention in recent years. The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, we present some conceptual discussion on the...

This study re-assesses the validity of the quantity theory of money (QTM) for the very long sample, 1870 to 2020, for 18 industrial countries using the dataset from Jordà et al. (2017). It considers structural changes in the economic and financial sectors and changes in monetary policy...

We estimate a dynamic intertemporal model with non-clearing markets that mimics features of European labour markets, such as sticky nominal wages and sluggish adjustment of employment to shocks for 15 OECD countries. The estimates include a measure for the degree of labour market sluggishness...

This paper asks two questions. First, can we detect empirically whether the shocks recovered from the estimates of a structural VAR are truly structural? Second, can the problem of nonfundamentalness be solved by considering additional information? The answer to the first question is yesʺ and...

The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic...