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and plant-level data. Overall, we show that combining satellite images and machine learning allows to track economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014484491
We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012285550
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003297519
Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising … each GDP component is then discussed. It appears that taking into account the information flow results in significant … changes in the weight allocated to each block of information, especially when the first month of hard data becomes available …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003789413
questions. Can developments in the housing sector be explained on the basis of developments in real and nominal GDP and interest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778777
This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inʿation as new releases of data … larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inʿation while GDP is only affected by real variables …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003337187
Despite being critical parameters in many economic fields, the received wisdom, in theoretical and empirical literatures, states that joint identification of the elasticity of capital-labor substitution and technical bias is infeasible. This paper challenges that pessimistic interpretation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831627
their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced … per-capita GDP growth since 1999 has been lower than what could have been predicted on the basis of historical experience … and US observed developments. The gap between US and euro area GDP per capita level has been 30% on average since 1970 and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831782
investment although rentals for owner occupied households is imputed into GDP. We argue that households de facto treat the … consumer durables impacts both the levels and growth rates of the capital stock, productivity and GDP. Our growth accounting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003790945
We estimate and forecast growth in euro area monthly GDP and its components from a dynamic factor model due to Doz et … al. (2005), which handles unbalanced data sets in an efficient way. We extend the model to integrate interpolation and … outperforms various benchmarks, such as quarterly time series models and bridge equations in forecasting growth in quarterly GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003794164