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This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503567
periods of low and high economic volatility (more specifically, we consider 2002-2007, which falls into the 'Great Moderation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009380421
This paper aims at providing a detailed analysis of the leading indicator properties of corporate bond spreads for real economic activity in the euro area. In- and out-of-sample predictive content of corporate bond spreads are examined along three dimensions: the bonds’ quality , their term to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008901497
This paper develops a novel indicator of global economic activity, the GEA Tracker, which is based on commodity prices selected recursively through a genetic algorithm. The GEA Tracker allows for daily real-time knowledge of international business conditions using a minimum amount of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012390472
sectoral regional inflation rates and exhibits much less volatility than previous findings for the US indicate. We further …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009006626
This paper investigates empirically the effect of personal income tax progressivity on output volatility in a sample of … hypothesis that higher personal income tax progressivity leads to lower output volatility. All other factors constant, countries … ; personal income taxes ; output volatility ; automatic stabilisers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009380419
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765961
Implied volatility indices should have information about risk parameters, once they are cleansed of the influence of … normal volatility dynamics and macroeconomic uncertainty. Building on intuition from the dynamic asset pricing literature, we … while controlling for realized volatility, expectations about the macroeconomic outlook, and interest rates. We apply this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832589
OECD data I document that credit market depth mitigates the impact of variations in productivity to output volatility. Then … credit market size and output volatility. The model matches resonably well the reduction in productivity-driven output … volatility implied by the established size of the credit market observed in OECD data. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003456411
In this paper we analyze empirically how labor market institutions influence business cycle volatility in a sample of … protection legislation appear to play a limited role for output volatility. We also find some evidence suggesting that highly … coordinated wage bargaining systems have a dampening impact on inflation volatility. -- Business Cycles ; Inflation ; Labor Market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831754