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This paper aims at providing a detailed analysis of the leading indicator properties of corporate bond spreads for real economic activity in the euro area. In- and out-of-sample predictive content of corporate bond spreads are examined along three dimensions: the bonds’ quality , their term to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008901497
This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503567
In this paper we analyze empirically how labor market institutions influence business cycle volatility in a sample of … protection legislation appear to play a limited role for output volatility. We also find some evidence suggesting that highly … coordinated wage bargaining systems have a dampening impact on inflation volatility. -- Business Cycles ; Inflation ; Labor Market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831754
Implied volatility indices should have information about risk parameters, once they are cleansed of the influence of … normal volatility dynamics and macroeconomic uncertainty. Building on intuition from the dynamic asset pricing literature, we … while controlling for realized volatility, expectations about the macroeconomic outlook, and interest rates. We apply this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832589
OECD data I document that credit market depth mitigates the impact of variations in productivity to output volatility. Then … credit market size and output volatility. The model matches resonably well the reduction in productivity-driven output … volatility implied by the established size of the credit market observed in OECD data. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003456411
sectoral regional inflation rates and exhibits much less volatility than previous findings for the US indicate. We further …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009006626
and it hence lowers the volatility of output. Technological complexity evolves endogenously in response to profit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003209099
We introduce frictional financial intermediation into a HANK model. Households are subject to idiosyncratic and aggregate risk and smooth consumption through savings and consumer loans intermediated by banks. The banking friction introduces an endogenous countercyclical spread between the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705511
We build a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility and use it to decompose the … common global uncertainty plays a primary role in explaining the volatility of inflation, interest rates and stock prices …, although to a varying extent over time. Region-specific uncertainty drives most of the exchange rate volatility for all Euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011856363
We test whether a simple measure of corporate insolvency based on equity return volatility - and denoted as Distance to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013448706