supplies, outputs, inflation rates and interest rates. Nonetheless, it has been well documented that such variables little help …

changes in inflation rates, but, possibly, also to investors' behavior. Secondly, we show that the special US dollar status of …

for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. -- Inflation forecasting ; leading indicators ; monetary policy ; information …

monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … stability. - Money growth ; inflation regimes ; early warning ; time varying transition probabilities ; Markov Switching model … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and …