forecasting daily electricity prices in two of the main European markets, Germany and Italy. We do that by means of mixed …-frequency models, introducing a Bayesian approach to reverse unrestricted MIDAS models (RU-MIDAS). We study the forecasting accuracy …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … estimated slack or by estimates from international economic institutions; (iii) external variables do not bring forecast gains …

reversion and assume that relative prices are unchanged. Direct forecasting or panel data techniques are better than the random …

similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and following recovery seems to produce the best …

valuable for out-of-sample forecasting even after controlling for the central bank inflation forecasts, which are an important …

point and density forecasts, in line with forecasting practices at many policy institutions. Our main findings are that … point forecasts perform similarly using both approaches, whereas directly forecasting aggregate indices tends to yield … better density forecasts. In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, relative forecasting performance was typically only …

The post-crisis environment has posed important challenges to standard forecasting models. In this paper, we exploit …-VAR and Augmented-(B)VARDSGE methods) and assess their use for forecasting the Spanish economy. Our empirical findings suggest … with (B)VAR methods does not give rise to any relevant gain in terms of forecasting accuracy. …

Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to … pre-tax price modelling. These characteristics enhance both in-sample explanatory power and forecast accuracy. Compared to … standard benchmarks and official projections, our BVARs achieve better forecasting performance, particularly beyond the very …

rationality using techniques widely employed in the applied literature of forecast evaluation. In general, the results are …