Many complex systems display fluctuations between alternative states in correspondence to tipping points. These critical shifts are usually associated with generic empirical phenomena such as strengthening correlations between entities composing the system. In finance, for instance, market...

We investigate the out-of-sample, recursive predictive accuracy for (fully hedged) commodity future returns of two sets of forecasting models, i.e., hidden Markov chain models in which the coefficients of predictive regressions follow a regime switching process and stepwise variable selection...

In many, if not most, econometric applications, it is impossible to estimate consistently the elements of the white-noise process or processes that underlie the DGP. A common example is a regression model with heteroskedastic and/or autocorrelated disturbances,where the heteroskedasticity and...

Using data on international, on-line media coverage and tone of the Brexit referendum, we test whether it is media coverage or tone to provide the largest forecasting performance improvements in the prediction of the conditional variance of weekly FTSE 100 stock returns. We find that versions of...

In this paper we take an empirical asset pricing perspective and investigate the dominant view (possibly, an instinctive reflection of the media hype surrounding the surge of Bitcoin valuations) that cryptocurrencies represent a new asset class, spanning risks and payoffs sufficiently...

Central banks' operations and efficiency arguments would suggest that the intraday interest rate should be set to zero. However, a liquidity crisis introduces frictions related to news, which can cause an upward jump of the intraday rate. This paper documents that these dynamics can be partially...

Following the definition of systemic risk by the Financial Stability Board, the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements, this paper proposes a method able to simultaneously address the two dimensions in which this risk materializes: namely the cross-sectional and...