This paper estimates a hidden Markov model where inflation is determined by government deficits financed through money creation and by expectations dynamics. The baseline model, proposed by Sargent et al. (2009) is able to distinguish between causes and remedies of hyperinflation, such as...

We explore the dynamics of inflation, inflation expectations, and seigniorage-financed fiscal deficits in Mexico. To do so, we estimate the model in Sargent, Williams, and Zha (2009) using Mexican CPI inflation data. This model features dual expected inflation equilibriums and regime switching...

We address the role that deep, structural factors may have as determinants of Mexico's economic growth. We argue that Mexico's poor growth performance appears to be associated not only with shorter-run events such as the "lost decade" of the eighties, but also with supply-side features of the...

This paper estimates the impact of the capture of leaders of criminal organizations on the labor market in municipalities where these organizations operated between 2004 and 2006. The difference-in-difference analysis compares different employment outcomes in cartel locations and the rest,...

We investigate the relationship between financial market frictions and economic activity in Mexico by constructing and decomposing a credit spread index from bonds issued by non-financial corporations in domestic markets, following Gilchrist and Zakrajsek (2012). We show that the credit spread...

We document the evolution of labor markets of five Latin American countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, with emphasis on informal employment. We show, for most countries, a slump in aggregate employment, mirrored by a fall in labor participation, and a decline in the informality rate. The...

This paper assesses the effects of trade and technological change on Mexico's labor market between 1994 and 2019. The implications of the exposure of local labor markets to greater trade integration under NAFTA and to greater competition from China in the US market are analyzed, as are the...

The COVID-19 pandemic not only generated real shocks affecting economic activity severely, but also a broad uncertainty that unleashed an extreme shock to financial markets. In this paper, we focus on the financial dimension of the pandemic from the viewpoint of an emerging market economy....