This paper provides empirical evidence that combinations of option implied and time series volatility forecasts that are conditional on current information are statistically superior to individual models, unconditional combinations, and hybrid forecasts. Superior forecasting performance is...

We propose a new approach to model high and low frequency components of equity correlations. Our framework combines a factor asset pricing structure with other specifications capturing dynamic properties of volatilities and covariances between a single common factor and idiosyncratic returns....

This note studies the causal relationship that may exist between the producer price index (PPI) and the consumer price index (CPI). In contrast with previous international studies, the results suggest that, in the case of Mexico, information on the PPI seems to be useful to improve forecasts of...

In this research paper ARCH-type models are applied in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of an inflation-index futures portfolio for several time-horizons. The empirical analysis is carried out for Mexican inflation-indexed futures traded at the Mexican Derivatives Exchange (MEXDER). To...

We analyze forecasts of inflation and GDP growth contained in Banco de México's Survey of Professional Forecasters for the period 1995-2009. The forecasts are for the current and the following year, comprising an unbalanced three-dimensional panel with multiple individual forecasters, target...

In this paper we apply a dynamic factor model to generate out of sample forecasts for the inflation rate in Mexico. We evaluate the role of using a wide range of macroeconomic variables with particular interest on the importance of using CPI disaggregated data to forecast inflation. Our data set...

Since the adoption of inflation targeting, the seasonal appears to be the component that explains the major part of inflation’s total variation in Mexico. In this context, we study the performance of seasonal time series models to forecast short-run inflation. Using multi-horizon evaluation...

We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best...

The purpose of this paper is to show that an affine model which incorporates the condition of no arbitrage enables improvements in forecasting the term structure of interest rates in Mexico. The three factors of the yield curve (level, slope and curvature) used in the model are estimated by the...

This document analyzes inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and GDP growth forecasts from the monthly Survey of Specialists in Economics from the Private Sector, maintained by Banco de M´exico. The study concentrates on the mean across forecasters for the period from January 1995 to April...