In this paper we introduce two general non-parametric first-order stationary time-series models for which marginal (invariant) and transition distributions are expressed as infinite-dimensional mixtures. That feature makes them the first Bayesian stationary fully non-parametric models developed...

In this research paper ARCH-type models are applied in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of an inflation-index futures portfolio for several time-horizons. The empirical analysis is carried out for Mexican inflation-indexed futures traded at the Mexican Derivatives Exchange (MEXDER). To...

It has been found that the t-statistic for testing the null of no relationship between two independent variables diverges asymptotically under a wide variety of nonstationary data generating processes. This paper introduces a simple method which guarantees convergence of this t-statistic to a...

This paper shows that the evolution of the level of Mexico real and real per capita output between 1895 and 2008 can be adequately described through a trendstationary model, affected by 4 structural breaks, which occurred at dates that seem to coincide with domestic institutional arrangements,...

In this research paper ARCH-type models and option implied volatilities (IV) are applied in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a stock index futures portfolio for several time horizons. The relevance of the asymmetries in the estimated volatility estimation is considered. The empirical...

Persistence is the speed with which a time series returns to its mean after a shock. Although several measures of persistence have been proposed in the literature, when they are empirically applied, the different measures indicate incompatible messages, as they differ both in the level and the...

This paper models the housing sector, mortgages and endogenous default in a DSGE setting with nominal and real rigidities. We use data for the period 1981-2006 to estimate our model using Bayesian techniques. We analyze how an increase in risk in the mortgage market raises the default rate and...