boost activity on the northern Mexican border. In this paper we estimate the effects of both policies on prices. We find … that the upward pressures on prices due to the minimum wage hike were more than offset by the downward pressures associated … with the VAT. In the absence of the VAT reduction policy, average prices in the northern Mexican border would have been …

index (CPI). In contrast with previous international studies, the results suggest that, in the case of Mexico, information … on the PPI seems to be useful to improve forecasts of CPI inflation. In particular, CPI inflation responds significantly … to disequilibrium errors with respect to the long-run relationship between consumer and producer prices. These results …

specified time horizon. -- Bootstrapping ; inflation ; inflation-indexed futures ; Mexico ; Value at Risk ; volatility …In this research paper ARCH-type models are applied in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of an inflation …-index futures portfolio for several time-horizons. The empirical analysis is carried out for Mexican inflation-indexed futures …

We analyze forecasts of inflation and GDP growth contained in Banco de México's Survey of Professional Forecasters for … ; Inflation forecasting ; Macroeconomic forecasting ; Panel data ; Surveys. …

In this paper we apply a dynamic factor model to generate out of sample forecasts for the inflation rate in Mexico. We … disaggregated data to forecast inflation. Our data set contains 54 macroeconomic series and 243 CPI subcomponents from 1988 to 2008 … key variables in the economy such as output growth and inflation. -- Factor models ; Inflation forecasting ; Disaggregate …

inflation’s total variation in Mexico. In this context, we study the performance of seasonal time series models to forecast …Since the adoption of inflation targeting, the seasonal appears to be the component that explains the major part of … short-run inflation. Using multi-horizon evaluation techniques, we examine the real-time forecasting performance of four …

above situation. In this setting, the exchange rate pass-through into consumer prices deserves special attention as it … allows us to evaluate the anchoring of inflation expectations in the Mexican economy. To address this issue, in this paper we … price-setting in Mexico for the period between January 2011 and April 2016. Our estimates suggest that the exchange rate …

This document analyzes inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and GDP growth forecasts from the monthly Survey of … Specialists in Economics from the Private Sector, maintained by Banco de M´exico. The study concentrates on the mean across … relative performance using as benchmarks forecasts from time series models and from other macroeconomic variables. Inflation …