"The Bank of England has constructed a 'suite of statistical forecasting models' (the 'Suite') providing judgement-free statistical forecasts of in ation and output growth as one of many inputs into the forecasting process, and to offer measures of relevant news in the data. The Suite combines a...

Detection of structural change is a critical empirical activity, but continuous 'monitoring' of time series for structural changes in real time raises well-known econometric issues. These have been explored in a univariate context. If multiple series co-break, as may be plausible, then it is...

We examine how to forecast after a recent break. We consider monitoring for change and then combining forecasts from models that do and do not use data before the change; and robust methods, namely rolling regressions, forecast averaging over different windows and exponentially weighted moving...