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The purpose of this paper is to explore the microfoundations of the observed asymmetric movement in aggregate unemployment rates. Using U.S. data, we find that individual labor force participation responds asymmetrically to changes in local labor market conditions, consistent with the pattern of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003730465
pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic … greatly-from an 80 percent rise (relative to January 2020) in two-year implied volatility on the S&P 500 to a 20-fold rise in … forecaster disagreement about UK growth. Third, time paths also differ: implied volatility rose rapidly from late February and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251406
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In this paper, we extend the parametric, asymmetric, stochastic volatility model (ASV), where returns are correlated … with volatility, by flexibly modeling the bivariate distribution of the return and volatility innovations nonparametrically …. Its novelty is in modeling the joint, conditional, return-volatility distribution with an infinite mixture of bivariate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009534187
is based on a linear, parametric relationship between expected returns and conditional volatility. This paper models the …-realized variance. We find strong robust evidence of volatility feedback in monthly data. Once volatility feedback is accounted for … relationship is nonlinear. Volatility feedback impacts the whole distribution and not just the conditional mean. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010365633
Empirical volatility studies have discovered nonstationary, long-memory dynamics in the volatility of the stock market … found with nonparametric estimates of the fractional differencing parameter d, for financial volatility. In this paper, a …, stochastic volatility (SV-FIAR) model. Joint estimates of the autoregressive and fractional differencing parameters of volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382237
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002256319
Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416304