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Asymmetric labor force participation decisions over the business cycle : evidence from US microdata

Hotchkiss, Julie L. (contributor); … - 2006

The purpose of this paper is to explore the microfoundations of the observed asymmetric movement in aggregate unemployment rates. Using U.S. data, we find that individual labor force participation responds asymmetrically to changes in local labor market conditions, consistent with the pattern of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003730465

Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Altig, Dave; Baker, Scott Brent; Barrero, Jose Maria; … - 2020

pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic … greatly-from an 80 percent rise (relative to January 2020) in two-year implied volatility on the S&P 500 to a 20-fold rise in … forecaster disagreement about UK growth. Third, time paths also differ: implied volatility rose rapidly from late February and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251406

Wage gains among job changers across the business cycle : insight from state administrative data

Hotchkiss, Julie L. (contributor); … - 2004

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002574293

Too good to be true? : fallacies in evaluating risk factor models

Gospodinov, Nikolaj; Kan, Raymond; Robotti, Cesare - 2017

This paper is concerned with statistical inference and model evaluation in possibly misspecified and unidentified linear asset-pricing models estimated by maximum likelihood and one-step generalized method of moments. Strikingly, when spurious factors (that is, factors that are uncorrelated with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011757568

The push-pull effects of the information technology boom and bust : insight from matched employer-employee data

Hotchkiss, Julie L. (contributor); … - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003335329

Wage gains among job changers across the business cycle : insight from state administrative data

Hotchkiss, Julie L. (contributor); … - 2004

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002256319

COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock

Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; … - 2021

Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416304

Surveying business uncertainty

Altig, David; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; … - 2019

We develop a new monthly panel survey of business executives and a new question design that elicits subjective probability distributions over own-firm outcomes at a one-year lookahead horizon. Our Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) began in 2014 and now covers 1,500 firms drawn from all 50...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012020039

Analytical solution for the constrained Hansen-Jagannathan distance under multivariate ellipticity

Gospodinov, Nikolaj; Kan, Raymond; Robotti, Cesare - 2012

We provide an in-depth analysis of the theoretical properties of the Hansen-Jagannathan (HJ) distance that incorporates a no-arbitrage constraint. Under a multivariate elliptical distribution assumption, we present explicit expressions for the HJ-distance with a no-arbitrage constraint, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009670329

Asset-pricing models and economic risk premia : a decomposition

Balduzzi, Pierluigi (contributor); … - 2005

The risk premia assigned to economic (nontraded) risk factors can be decomposed into three parts: (i) the risk premia on maximum-correlation portfolios mimicking the factors; (ii) (minus) the covariance between the nontraded components of the candidate pricing kernel of a given model and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003115603