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Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
Altig, Dave; Baker, Scott Brent; Barrero, Jose Maria; … - 2020
pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic … greatly-from an 80 percent rise (relative to January 2020) in two-year implied volatility on the S&P 500 to a 20-fold rise in … forecaster disagreement about UK growth. Third, time paths also differ: implied volatility rose rapidly from late February and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251406
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Surveying business uncertainty
Altig, David; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; … - 2019
We develop a new monthly panel survey of business executives and a new question design that elicits subjective probability distributions over own-firm outcomes at a one-year lookahead horizon. Our Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) began in 2014 and now covers 1,500 firms drawn from all 50...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012020039
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COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock
Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; … - 2021
Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416304
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The shift to remote work lessens wage-growth pressures
Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; … - 2022
The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior of US employers, and we develop novel survey...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013273505