Showing 1 - 10 of 193
We add to recent evidence on deindustrialization and document a new pattern: increasing industry polarization over time. We assess whether these new features of structural change can be explained by a dynamic open economy model with two primary driving forces, sector-biased productivity growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013393551
generate substantial inflation. Such a shock induces an equilibrium decline in the relative price of services. If price … increase in goods prices, resulting in, on net, little inflation. If prices in the services sector are downwardly rigid …, however, this takes place mostly through an increase in goods prices, resulting in inflation. To illustrate the relevance of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014515717
Historically, inflation is negatively correlated with stock returns, leading investors to fear inflation. We document … cornerstone of modern macroeconomic theory. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012150291
We study the importance of international trade in structural change. Our framework has both productivity and trade cost shocks, and allows for non-unitary income and substitution elasticities. We calibrate our model to investigate South Korea's structural change between 1971 and 2005. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009788686
relating unemployment and vacancies to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014380658
their income. Even though CPI inflation targeting approximates optimal monetary policy when financial inclusion is high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011487396
Survey of Professional Forecasters as a measure of price setters' inflation expectations. This model improves upon existing … perfect information models in explaining why, in the data, inflation expectations respond with delays to monetary impulses and …, explaining why inflation and inflation expectations were so persistently heightened. The signaling effects of monetary policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011559878
We show that policy uncertainty about how the rising public debt will be stabilized accounts for the lack of deflation in the US economy at the zero lower bound. We first estimate a Markov-switching VAR to highlight that a zero-lower-bound regime captures most of the comovements during the Great...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011560569
central bank transparency. Monetary policy can deviate from active inflation stabilization and agents conduct Bayesian … welfare declines. Announcing the future policy course raises uncertainty in the short run by revealing that active inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011560575
This paper describes a package which uses MATLAB functions and routines to estimate VARs, local projections and other models with classical or Bayesian methods. The toolbox allows a researcher to conduct inference under various prior assumptions on the parameters, to produce point and density...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617682