This paper investigates the impact of the history of crises on macroeconomic performance. We first study the impact of past banking crises on the probability of a future banking crisis. Applying data for 1980 - 2010 for all countries for which the required information is available, controlling...

This paper investigates the factors explaining exchange market pressures (EMP) and the hoarding and use of international reserves (IR) by emerging markets during the 2000s, as the Great Moderation turned to the 2008-9 global crisis and great recession. According to our results, both financial...

In this paper, we explore the link between stress in the domestic financial sector and the capital flight faced by countries in the 2008-9 global crisis. Both the timing of emergence of internal financial stress in developing economies, and the size of the peak-trough declines in the stock price...

The policy Trilemma (the ability to accomplish only two policy objectives out of financial integration, exchange rate stability and monetary autonomy) remains a valid macroeconomic framework. The financial globalization during 1990s-2000s reduced the weighted average of exchange rate stability...

The policy Trilemma (the ability to accomplish only two out of three policy objectives -financial integration, exchange rate stability and monetary autonomy) continues to be a valid macroeconomic framework. The financial globalization during 1990s-2000s reduced the weighted average of exchange...

We define the notion of 'de facto fiscal space' of a country as the inverse of the outstanding public debt relative to the de facto tax base, where the latter measures the realized tax collection, averaged across several years to smooth for business cycle fluctuations. We apply this concept to...