This paper provides novel evidence on the impact of changes in energy prices on manufacturing performance in two large developing economies-Indonesia and Mexico. It finds that unlike increases in electricity prices, which harm plants' performance, fuel price hikes result in higher productivity...

The outbreak of COVID-19 and the wide-ranging measures needed to slow its advance triggered an unprecedented collapse in oil demand, a surge in oil inventories, and a record one-month decline in oil prices in March 2020. This paper examines the likely implications of the 2020 oil price plunge...

The COVID-19-triggered collapse in oil prices in March and April 2020 was the seventh, and by far the most severe, in a series of such collapses since 1970. This paper, first, compares this most recent collapse and its drivers with previous ones in an event study. It finds that it was associated...

Oil resources usually play a significant role in oil-rich countries, in gross domestic product and government revenues. High dependence of government revenues on oil can contribute to severe recession following an adverse commodity price shock, such as in 2014. This paper examines the extent to...

Accurately measuring oil production in low-governance contexts is an important task. Many terrorist organizations and insurgencies-including the Islamic State group, also known as ISIL/ISIS or Daesh-tap oil as a revenue source. Understanding spatial and temporal variation in production in their...

With the benefit of hindsight, this paper provides a fresh and comprehensive look at the causes of the 2014-16 collapse in oil prices and its impact on the global economy. It disentangles the contribution of supply and demand factors, assesses the impact on activity in oil exporters and oil...

This paper explores the effect of oil shocks on electoral outcomes. Using a new polling and election data set for 207 elections across 50 democracies, the paper shows that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents. The analysis verifies that these shocks -...

Commodity-exporting developing economies are often characterized as having needlessly procyclical fiscal policy: spending when commodity prices are high and cutting back when prices fall. The standard policy advice is instead to save during price windfalls and maintain spending during price...

In the three months since most observers, including the World Bank, issued their last forecasts, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region has changed substantially. Political tensions have eased somewhat with presidential and legislative elections completed in a few countries. Egypt's...

This paper investigates how the devolution of oil windfalls affects the likelihood of political violence. It shows that transferring large shares of oil wealth can prevent conflict, while transferring small shares can trigger it. Among the different transfer schemes, fiscal transfers (to...