This paper analyzes the role of the United States in the global economy and examines the extent of global spillovers from changes in U.S. growth, monetary and fiscal policies, and uncertainty in its financial markets and economic policies. Developments in the U.S. economy, the world's largest,...

The productivity of the world's natural resources is critically dependent on a variety of highly uncertain factors, which obscure individual investors and governments that seek to make long-term, sometimes irreversible investments in their exploration and utilization. These dynamic...

This paper investigates the effects of multiple weather shocks on household welfare in Mozambique, as well as some of the coping responses and price mechanisms at play. The analysis employs a triple-difference strategy that exploits variation in the shocks across space, time, and cropping...

A supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Firms are constantly managing uncertainties, including unexpected delays in the provision of a critical input that can slow down or halt the production process, possibly making the manufacturer miss a delivery deadline. As most exporters are...

Traditional risk assessments use asset losses as the main metric to measure the severity of a disaster. This paper proposes an expanded risk assessment based on a framework that adds socioeconomic resilience and uses wellbeing losses as its main measure of disaster severity. Using a new,...

Several studies have found that the cross-section of stock returns reflects a risk premium for bearing downside risk; however, existing measures of downside risk have poor power for predicting returns. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel measure of downside risk, the ES-implied beta, to...

This paper argues that although the bulk of the literature tends to focus on regulatory uncertainty stemming from formal practices, uncertainty that comes from unpredictable informal practices surrounding regulation is an underexplored additional form of regulatory uncertainty. The paper uses...

Although the effects of insecurity are believed to be important, these have never been directly measured. Previous estimates of the costs of conflict have only captured the joint effect of violence and insecurity. The distinction is important for understanding the origins of the costs and for...

Climate change will exacerbate the challenges associated with environmental conditions, especially weather variability and extremes, in developing countries. These challenges play important, if as yet poorly understood roles in the development prospects of affected regions. As such, climate...

This paper discusses how catastrophe crop risk models can be used to assess food security needs at the sovereign level for the purpose of risk transfer. The rationale for a system to evaluate food security needs at the national level is discussed. The role of technology and remote sensing data...