How large are the estimated gains from trade from a reduction in trade costs in the heterogeneous firms Melitz (M) model compared with the Armington (A) and Krugman (K) models? Surprisingly little is known beyond the one-sector model. This paper analyzes this question using a global trade model...

The authors examine the influence of infrastructure, institutional quality, colonial and geographic context, and trade preferences on the pattern of bilateral trade. They are interested in threshold effects, and so emphasize those cases where bilateral country pairs do not actually trade. The...

The recent large and rapid slowdown in economic activity has resulted in even larger and more rapid declines in international trade. As world trade is set to rebound, this paper addresses three questions: (i) Will trade volumes rebound in a symmetric fashion as world economic growth rebounds?...

We determine how time delays affect international trade, using newly-collected World Bank data on the days it takes to move standard cargo from the factory gate to the ship in 126 countries. We estimate a modified gravity equation, controlling for endogeneity and remoteness. On average, each...

This paper studies the relationship between the growth of China and India in world merchandise trade and Latin American and Caribbean commercial flows from two perspectives. First, the authors focus on the opportunity that China and India's markets have offered Latin American and Caribbean...

The author investigates the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral trade flows using a comprehensive database of PTAs in force and a detailed matrix of world trade. He shows that total trade between PTA partners is a poor proxy for preferential trade (trade in tariff lines...

The "distance effect" measuring the elasticity of trade flows to distance has been rising since the early 1970s in a host of studies based on the gravity model, leading observers to call it the "distance puzzle" . This paper reviews the evidence and explanations. Using an extensive data set of...

The authors present a new database of minimum distance road routes connecting 138 cities in 27 countries across Europe and Central Asia. They use it to show that improved road network quality is robustly associated with higher intraregional trade flows. Gravity model simulations suggest that an...

This paper examines how policy governing the liner shipping sector affects maritime transport costs and seaborne trade flows. The paper uses a novel data set and finds that restrictions, particularly on foreign investment, increase maritime transport costs, strongly but unevenly. The...

This paper examines recent changes in the structure of Argentine exports and the implications for future growth. The authors find that the current export structure of Argentina is not conducive to future growth because it is dominated by low-productivity goods that tend to be exported by...