Showing 1 - 10 of 559
With the benefit of hindsight, this paper provides a fresh and comprehensive look at the causes of the 2014-16 collapse in oil prices and its impact on the global economy. It disentangles the contribution of supply and demand factors, assesses the impact on activity in oil exporters and oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920304
Previous sharp oil price declines have been accompanied by elevated ex post volatility. In contrast, volatility was … price declines. This finding is robust to nonparametric and GARCH measures of volatility. Further, the U.S. dollar … appreciation exerted a strong influence on volatility during the recent crash; in contrast, the impact of shocks on equity markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970942
This paper investigates how the devolution of oil windfalls affects the likelihood of political violence. It shows that transferring large shares of oil wealth can prevent conflict, while transferring small shares can trigger it. Among the different transfer schemes, fiscal transfers (to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012967487
This paper examines the effect of crude oil prices on the prices of 35 internationally traded primary commodities for the 1960-2005 period. It finds that the pass-through of crude oil price changes to the overall non-energy commodity index is 0.16. At a more disaggregated level, the fertilizer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012747627
This paper investigates the adverse effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the extent to which … countries can hedge against such effects by using renewable energy. By considering the Realized Volatility of oil prices, rather …, and variance decompositions show that oil price volatility has more-adverse effects in all sample countries than oil price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012973994
Between 1999 and 2008, world oil prices more than quadrupled in real terms. For oil importers, vulnerability to oil … domestic product. Oil intensity fell in more than half the countries in every income group and in every region of the world … pass-through to consumers of increases in world prices of gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gas between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974899
The authors investigate the impact on economic growth and development of long-run movements in the external terms of trade, with special reference to the experience of 18 oil-exporting countries between 1973 and 1989. They argue that this sample approximates a controlled experiment for examining...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012746912
This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in … evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends … to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012975567
, and the current consensus seems to be that there is at most a weak negative effect of exchange rate volatility on … aggregate trade flows. However, most of this literature examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on aggregate trade flows …, implicitly assuming a uniform impact of this volatility on exporters across sectors. This paper explots the fact that, if …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012976093
Soaring commodity prices in 2007 and 2008 raised concerns that volatility was also rising, which would have … prices rather than their volatility characteristics. This paper contributes by examining commodity price volatility with a … main conclusions are: the timing and number of breaks in volatility vary considerably across individual commodities …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012976320