The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting? the production function approach?in terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth...

The path of output prior to the financial and economic crisis turned out to be not sustainable and lower than previously estimated in some European crisis countries. Specifically, the output gaps have been underestimated (and inversely potential output overestimated) before the recent crisis. It...

The path of output prior to the financial and economic crisis turned out to be not sustainable and lower than previously estimated in some European crisis countries. Specifically, the output gaps have been underestimated (and inversely potential output overestimated) before the recent crisis. It...

The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting? the production function approach?in terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth...

This paper analyzes which factors are driving the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. Using the results of a poll among survey participants as well as Granger causality tests we identify three groups of influence factors: other sentiment indicators, financial variables and real economy data. In...

Die Untersuchung analysiert das Sparverhalten der über 30- bis unter 50jährigen Personen bzw. Haushalte mit Haushaltsvorständen in dieser Altersgruppe in Reaktion auf erhaltene Erbschaften bzw. Transfers zu Lebzeiten. Zugrunde liegen aktuelle Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels. Mittels...

The savings banks? decision to distribute profits among their public owners is strongly regulated by law in order to guarantee their adequate funding via retained profits. However, the legal scope is reluctantly exhausted. In this study we examine the determinants of the savings banks? payout...

In contrast to earlier field studies, we survey German public savings banks on their management of capital. We find that the most important determinants of the savings banks? target capital ratio are risk aversion, the desired credit growth and profitability. Savings banks prefer to manage the...