This paper analyzes which factors are driving the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. Using the results of a poll among survey participants as well as Granger causality tests we identify three groups of influence factors: other sentiment indicators, financial variables and real economy data. In...

This paper analyzes which factors are driving the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. Using the results of a poll among survey participants as well as Granger causality tests we identify three groups of influence factors: other sentiment indicators, financial variables and real economy data. In...

In an a priori view, it is usually assumed that the business cycle of manufacturing industries leads the business cycle of the service sector. This seems to be even more plausible for the relationship between business-related services, whose high growth rates in recent years were largely due to...

Die schwere Wirtschaftskrise 2008/09 hatte substanzielle Auswirkungen auf die Innovationstätigkeit der deutschen Wirtschaft. Die Umsatz- und Gewinneinbußen führten zu einem kräftigen Rückgang der Innovationsausgaben. Davon waren primär Investitionen für neue Produkte und verbesserte...

We formulate an optimal control capital accumulation model with a Leontief-type production function and an exogenously given time-lag between investment and the accumulation of the capital stock, to analyze the qualitative and quantitative influence of time-lags on the system dynamics. As known...

The paper investigates the business cycle relationships between the EU-15, the EU-11, as well as the EU-core countries for the period 1971 to 1997. Emphasis is put on the question whether there is a synchronization in the national business cycles or not. Using One-way- and Twoway-Anova...

In this paper the accuracy of a wide range of German business cycle forecasters is assessed for the past 10 years. For this purpose, a data set is used comprising forecasts published on a monthly basis by Consensus Economics. The application of several descriptive as well as statistical measures...

In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic forecasts of the Consensus Forecasts for 12 countries over the period from 1996 to 2006 regarding bias and information efficiency. A pooled approach is employed which permits the evaluation of all forecasts for each target variable over 24 horizons...