This paper uses an empirical connection between real stock market indices of Germany and the USA for forecasting corresponding returns. We are starting from the random walk as the traditional forecasting model in stock market applications, extending it by co-integration. Since the cointegrating...

There is ample evidence that user-producer interaction is an important factor for successful innovations. It is often claimed that user-producer interaction is most effcient in close proximity. On the other hand, innovations are a major determinant for the export performance of firms. Does this...

In the paper we simulate a revenue-neutral cut in the social security contribution rate using five different types of macro- / microeconomic models, namely two models based on time-series data where the labour market is modelled basically demand oriented, two models of the class of computable...

In this paper we analyse the relationship between export and innovation activities of German service sector companies using data from the 1997 wave of the Mannheim Innovation Panel in the Service Sector. There is a lot of support for the Schumpeterian hypothesis of export activities being mainly...

In der vorliegenden Arbeit untersuchen wir die Eignung der ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und der ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen als Frühindikatoren für die deutsche Industrieproduktion. Anhand von Granger-Kausalitätstests wird gezeigt, dass die auf Umfragen unter Finanzanalysten basierenden...

We analyze four economic sentiment indicators for the German economy regarding their ability to forecast economic activity. Using cross correlations and Granger causality tests we find that the ifo business expectations (ifo), the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the ZEW Indicator of Economic...

The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting? the production function approach?in terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth...

In the European Union (EU) and in Germany the transport sector is the only sector with increasing CO2 emissions (in the EU by about 32 % and in Germany by about 1 % since 1990). Especially in road freight and air transport a further strong increase is forecasted. In the transport sector this...

Can publicly available, web-scraped data be used to identify promising business startups at an early stage? To answer this question, we use such textual and non-textual information about the names of Danish firms and their addresses as well as their business purpose statements (BPSs)...

Due to the omnipresence of digital technologies in the economy, measuring firm digitalisation is of high importance. However, current indicators show several shortcomings, e.g., they lack timeliness and regional granularity. In this study, we show that advances in text mining and comprehensive...