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Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals

Dick, Christian D.; MacDonald, Ronald; Menkhoff, Lukas - 2011

This paper suggests that exchange rates are related to economic fundamentals over medium-term horizons, such as a month or longer. We find from a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts that good exchange rate forecasts benefit from the proper understanding of fundamentals,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009374424

Crime and the labour market: evidence from a survey of inmates

Entorf, Horst (contributor) - 2009

In this paper data from a survey of 1,771 inmates conducted in 31 German prisons provide microeconometric evidence on the relationship between individual anticipated labour market opportunities and the perceived probability of future recidivism. Results show that inmates with poor labour market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003805645

Higher-order beliefs among professional stock market forecasters : some first empirical tests

Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas - 2009

A sizeable literature reports that financial market analysts and forecasters herd for reputational reasons. Using new data from a large survey of professional forecasters' expectations about stock market movements, we find strong evidence that the expected average of all forecasters' forecasts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003871361

Exchange rate expectations of chartists and fundamentalists

Dick, Christian D.; Menkhoff, Lukas - 2012

This paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately. These groups indeed form expectations differently. Chartists change their expectations more often; however, all professionals' expectations vary considerably as they generally...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009521123

Die externen Luftverschmutzungskosten des motorisierten Individualverkehrs in Deutschland : ein regionaler Vergleich

Weinreich, Sigurd - 2000

(MIV) für verschiedene Technologien, Fahrsituationen und alle Regionen in Deutschland berechnet. Dabei ist das Ziel der …) generiert. Die wichtigsten Faktoren für diese hohen regionalen Unterschiede sind der vorherrschende Südwestwind in Deutschland … Bevölkerungsdichte in der Fläche über Deutschland und weite Teile Europas. Die Untersuchung wird abgerundet durch die Abschätzung der …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445161

Savings, expectations and technological unemployment : a generalization of assumptions for the Hicksian fixwage traverse

Kraus, Margit; Wirth, Steffen - 2000

This paper examines the role of alternative assumptions on savings and expectations for the fixwage traverse with strong forward biased technological change. After briefly outlining the model, some peculiarities of the adjustment path under the Hicksian Q-Assumption are investigated....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444706

How do investors' expectations drive asset prices?

Lüders, Erik; Peisl, Bernhard - 2001

Asset price processes are completely described by information processes and investors´ preferences. In this paper we derive the relationship between the process of investors´ expectations of the terminal stock price and asset prices in a general continous time pricing kernel framework. To...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445936

Macro expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia

Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas - 2010

Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a real-time proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008660631

Endogenous worst-case beliefs in first-price auctions

Gretschko, Vitali; Mass, Helene - 2018

Bidding in first-price auctions crucially depends on the beliefs of the bidders about their competitors' willingness to pay. We analyze bidding behavior in a first-price auction in which the knowledge of the bidders about the distribution of their competitors' valuations is restricted to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011946017

Exports and profitability : first evidence for German manufacturing firms

Fryges, Helmut (contributor); Wagner, Joachim (contributor) - 2008

Germany, this paper presents the first comprehensive evidence on the relationship between exports and profitability. It …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003770907

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