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Projecting the medium-term : outcomes and errors for GDP growth

Kappler, Marcus (contributor) - 2007

The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting the production function approachin terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003582516

Educational effects of early or later secondary school tracking in Germany

Mühlenweg, Andrea M. (contributor) - 2007

This paper examines educational outcomes of pupils selected to secondary school types by different tracking regimes in a German state: Pupils are alternatively streamed after fourth grade or after sixth grade. Regression results indicate that, estimated on the mean, there are no negative effects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003607992

Local governments in the wake of demographic change : efficiency and economies of scale in German municipalities

Geys, Benny (contributor); Heinemann, Friedrich (contributor) - 2007

German municipalities are expected to suffer from (often significant) population losses in the upcoming decades. We assess these local governments’ vulnerability to the fiscal consequences of this demographic decline through two means (using a sample of 1021 municipalities in the state of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003480058

Short-term training programs for immigrants : do effects differ from natives and why?

Aldashev, Alisher; Thomsen, Stephan L.; Walter, Thomas - 2010

We evaluate the effects of different short-term training programs on the employment chances of immigrant and native welfare recipients in Germany. In particular, we investigate whether program effects differ between both groups and what might cause these potential differences. In a first step,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003954181

Does immigration weaken natives’ support for the welfare state? : evidence from Germany

Stichnoth, Holger - 2010

Using data from the 1997 and 2002 waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel and from official statistics, I study whether natives are less supportive of state help for the unemployed in regions where the share of foreigners among the unemployed is high. Unlike previous studies, I use...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003923101

Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals

Dick, Christian D.; MacDonald, Ronald; Menkhoff, Lukas - 2011

This paper suggests that exchange rates are related to economic fundamentals over medium-term horizons, such as a month or longer. We find from a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts that good exchange rate forecasts benefit from the proper understanding of fundamentals,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009374424

Die externen Luftverschmutzungskosten des motorisierten Individualverkehrs in Deutschland : ein regionaler Vergleich

Weinreich, Sigurd - 2000

(MIV) für verschiedene Technologien, Fahrsituationen und alle Regionen in Deutschland berechnet. Dabei ist das Ziel der …) generiert. Die wichtigsten Faktoren für diese hohen regionalen Unterschiede sind der vorherrschende Südwestwind in Deutschland … Bevölkerungsdichte in der Fläche über Deutschland und weite Teile Europas. Die Untersuchung wird abgerundet durch die Abschätzung der …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445161

A gains from trade perspective on macroeconomic fluctuations

Beaudry, Paul; Portier, Franck - 2012

Business cycles reflect changes over time in the amount of trade between individuals. In this paper we show that incorporating explicitly intra-temporal gains from trade between individuals into a macroeconomic model can provide new insight into the potential mechanisms driving economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009424712

Forecaster overconfidence and market survey performance

Deaves, Richard; Lei, Jin; Schröder, Michael - 2015

We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010511233

Earnings losses after non-employment increase with age

Zwick, Thomas (contributor) - 2008

This paper shows that earnings losses after unemployment increase with age. First, older employees start out with relatively high earnings in comparison to employees without employment interruptions several years before the non-employment spell. This earnings advantage turns into a strong...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003728393

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