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decisions with regard to inflation expectations of financial market experts for the euro area from February 1999 to June 2007 … of inflation expectations formation. …
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future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover the sources of individual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a …. However, although experts tend to overestimate the impact of inflation on future interest rates, perceptions of monetary … improved communication has reduced disagreement over the ECB's response to expected inflation during the financial crisis …
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This paper deals with a critical assessment and a reestimation of the "non-accelerating in ation rate of unemployment" (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy-to-use analytical instrument, suitable for economic policy: the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448601
This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003728591
In der vorliegenden Arbeit untersuchen wir die Eignung der ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und der ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen als Frühindikatoren für die deutsche Industrieproduktion. Anhand von Granger-Kausalitätstests wird gezeigt, dass die auf Umfragen unter Finanzanalysten basierenden...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445667
We analyze four economic sentiment indicators for the German economy regarding their ability to forecast economic activity. Using cross correlations and Granger causality tests we find that the ifo business expectations (ifo), the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the ZEW Indicator of Economic...
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