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future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover the sources of individual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a …. However, although experts tend to overestimate the impact of inflation on future interest rates, perceptions of monetary … improved communication has reduced disagreement over the ECB's response to expected inflation during the financial crisis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003989026
decisions with regard to inflation expectations of financial market experts for the euro area from February 1999 to June 2007 … of inflation expectations formation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003528856
This paper deals with a critical assessment and a reestimation of the "non-accelerating in ation rate of unemployment" (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy-to-use analytical instrument, suitable for economic policy: the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448601
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001906587
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Phillips curve, the sum of coefficients associated with expected inflation is far beyond unity, whatever measure of expected … inflation rates is employed. Therefore, either the NAIRU concept is not applicable to Germany or, as it is our suggestion, one … estimates the unemployment rate that is compatible with a tolerable inflation rate of say 2 percent following roughly the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003607638
potential output overestimated) before the recent crisis. It is fair to say that the employed estimation techniques failed to … insignificant relation between inflation and the output gap or unemployment gap, which questions the adequacy of the Phillips curve … into account in conventional methods for the estimation of potential output and the output gap. Since both, potential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010416360
Declining inflation rates might have negative consequences for tax revenues. Phenomena like the inflationary bracket … lay the theoretical base followed by a descriptive view on the relation between inflation, growth and tax revenues in the … reveal that an end of inflation would have a negative impact on tax revenues for a number of OECD countries. The results also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444606
ignoring a potential national perspective may lead to a serious bias in the estimation of ECB reaction functions. The paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011447829
risk drivers are employed and multi-regime IRs for output, inflation rates, interest rates and financial stress are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011452796