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Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals

Dick, Christian D.; MacDonald, Ronald; Menkhoff, Lukas - 2011

This paper suggests that exchange rates are related to economic fundamentals over medium-term horizons, such as a month or longer. We find from a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts that good exchange rate forecasts benefit from the proper understanding of fundamentals,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009374424

Die externen Luftverschmutzungskosten des motorisierten Individualverkehrs in Deutschland : ein regionaler Vergleich

Weinreich, Sigurd - 2000

(MIV) für verschiedene Technologien, Fahrsituationen und alle Regionen in Deutschland berechnet. Dabei ist das Ziel der …) generiert. Die wichtigsten Faktoren für diese hohen regionalen Unterschiede sind der vorherrschende Südwestwind in Deutschland … Bevölkerungsdichte in der Fläche über Deutschland und weite Teile Europas. Die Untersuchung wird abgerundet durch die Abschätzung der …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445161

Projecting the medium-term : outcomes and errors for GDP growth

Kappler, Marcus (contributor) - 2007

The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting the production function approachin terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003582516

A gains from trade perspective on macroeconomic fluctuations

Beaudry, Paul; Portier, Franck - 2012

Business cycles reflect changes over time in the amount of trade between individuals. In this paper we show that incorporating explicitly intra-temporal gains from trade between individuals into a macroeconomic model can provide new insight into the potential mechanisms driving economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009424712

Forecaster overconfidence and market survey performance

Deaves, Richard; Lei, Jin; Schröder, Michael - 2015

We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010511233

Earnings losses after non-employment increase with age

Zwick, Thomas (contributor) - 2008

This paper shows that earnings losses after unemployment increase with age. First, older employees start out with relatively high earnings in comparison to employees without employment interruptions several years before the non-employment spell. This earnings advantage turns into a strong...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003728393

Heterogeneous labour markets in a microsimulation-AGE model : application to welfare reform in Germany

Boeters, Stefan (contributor); Feil, Michael (contributor) - 2008

Labour market reforms that are designed to stimulate labour supply at the lower end of the wage distribution can never be precisely restricted to affect only the target group. Spillovers to and feedback from other segments of the labour market are unavoidable and may counteract the direct...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003728424

Noncognitive skills, Internet use and educational dropout

Coneus, Katja (contributor); Gernandt, Johannes (contributor) - 2008

Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for the years 2000 to 2006 we analyze the determinants and labor market effects of educational dropout. In addition to classical variables like family background and occupation, we examine noncognitive skills and Internet use. Noncognitive skills...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003728547

The adoption of new technologies and the age structure of the workforce

Meyer, Jenny (contributor) - 2008

This paper provides firm-level evidence for the relationship between the age structure of the workforce and the adoption of new or significantly improved technologies in service sector firms. Furthermore, it closes a research gap by analyzing the joint impact of the age of the workforce and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003728572

R&D investment and financing constraints of small and medium-sized firms

Czarnitzki, Dirk (contributor); Binz, Hanna L. (contributor) - 2008

This study tests for financial constraints on R&D investment and how they differ from capital investment. To identify constraints in the access to external capital, we employ a credit rating index. Our models show that internal constraints, measured by mark-ups, are more decisive for R&D than...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003728587

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