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We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We document that revisions of the data typically represent news, and we introduce backcasting and nowcasting techniques...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009493559
We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The proposed combination schemes are based on the forecasting performances of a given set of models with the aim to provide better turning point predictions. In particular, we consider predictions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010602931
Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385759
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about market expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because the presence of a timevarying risk premium often renders the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083547