This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2005). The method consists in...

We revisit the relation between stock market volatility and macroeconomic activity using a new class of component models that distinguish short-run from long-run movements. We formulate models with the long-term component driven by inflation and industrial production growth that are in terms of...

We introduce easy to implement regression-based methods for predicting quarterly real economic activity that use daily financial data and rely on forecast combinations of MIDAS regressions. Our analysis is designed to elucidate the value of daily information and provide real-time forecast...

This paper shows how and when it is possible to obtain a mapping from a quarterly DSGE model to amonthly specification thatmaintains the same economic restrictions and has real coefficients. We use this technique to derive the monthly counterpart of the Gali et al (2011) model. We then augment...

This paper shows how and when it is possible to obtain a mapping from a quarterly dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to a monthly specification that maintains the same economic restrictions and has real coefficients. We use this technique to derive the monthly counterpart of the...

This paper describes an algorithm to compute the distribution of conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on future paths of some other variables, in dynamic systems. The algorithm is based on Kalman filtering methods and is computationally viable for large...

Can we design statistical models to predict corporate earnings which either perform as well as, or even better than analysts? If we can, then we might consider automating the process, and notably apply it to small and international firms which typically have either sparse or no analyst coverage....

The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and recently also in economics In this paper we survey recent developments on economic now-casting with special focus on those models that formalize key features of how market...

This paper shows how and when it is possible to obtain a mapping from a quarterly DSGE model to a monthly specification that maintains the same economic restrictions and has real coefficients. We use this technique to derive the monthly counterpart of the Gali et al (2011) model. We then augment...

We consider the problem of optimally combining individual forecasts of gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) dataset for the Euro Area. Contrary to the common practice of using equal combination weights, we compute optimal weights which...