The paper discusses similarities and differences between NDC and the French and German point systems. The study focuses on how these systems differ when there is an external shock (demographic, economic, or other) and discusses the possible consequences of moving from the point system to NDC....

This paper assesses the impact on growth and the inter-generational redistributive effects of some possible pension reforms in France using a dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. Results suggest that a reform increasing the effective average retirement age by 1.25...

We analyse the economic impact of a simultaneous aging shock in two countries. The countries are identical in all respects except the financing scheme of their public pension system. While one relies on capitalization, the other one relies on a pay-as-you-go scheme. We show that the two...

Multi-period forecasts of stock market return volatilities are often used in many applied areas of finance where long horizon measures of risk are necessary. Yet, very little is known about how to forecast variances several periods ahead, as most of the focus has been placed on one-period ahead...

We examine whether the sign and magnitude of discretely sampled high frequency returns have impact on future volatility predictions. We first let the 'data speak', namely with minimal interference we capture the mapping between returns over short horizons and future volatility over longer...

It is difficult to define news, and many definitions are model-based since part of what is announced is anticipated. Therefore, news is typically defined as a residual within the context of some type of prediction model, and the prediction model locks in the sampling frequency that is the...

We provide theoretical explanations for (1) the empirical stylized fact recognized at least since Taylor (1986) and Ding, Granger, and Engle (1993) that absolute returns show more persistence than squared returns and (2) the empirical funding reported in recent work by Ghysels, Santa-Clara, and...

It is common practice to use the sum of frequently sampled squared returns to estimate volatility, yielding so called realized volatility. Unfortunately, returns are contaminated by market microstructure noise. Several noise-corrected realized volatility measures have been proposed. We assess to...

Over the last four decades, a large number of structural models have been developed to estimate and price credit risk. The focus of the paper is on a much neglected issue pertaining to fundamental shifts in the structural parameters governing default. We propose formal quality control procedures...