The paper discusses similarities and differences between NDC and the French and German point systems. The study focuses on how these systems differ when there is an external shock (demographic, economic, or other) and discusses the possible consequences of moving from the point system to NDC....

This paper assesses the impact on growth and the inter-generational redistributive effects of some possible pension reforms in France using a dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. Results suggest that a reform increasing the effective average retirement age by 1.25...

We analyse the economic impact of a simultaneous aging shock in two countries. The countries are identical in all respects except the financing scheme of their public pension system. While one relies on capitalization, the other one relies on a pay-as-you-go scheme. We show that the two...

We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coe¢ cients to construct a …nancial conditions index. The time-variation in the parameters allows for the weights attached to each …nancial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for...

This paper addresses the issue of improving the forecasting performance of vector autoregressions (VARs) when the set of available predictors is inconveniently large to handle with methods and diagnostics used in traditional small scale models. First, available information from a large dataset...

This paper develops methods for automatic selection of variables in forecasting Bayesian vector autoregressions (VARs) using the Gibbs sampler. In particular, I provide computationally efficient algorithms for stochastic variable selection in generic (linear and nonlinear) VARs. The performance...

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such...

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such...

We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients to construct a financial conditions index. The time-variation in the parameters allows for the weights attached to each .financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for...