The large financial crises in the last decade have increased the interest of many economists in searching for some indicators, which can predict speculative attacks on currencies. Most of these studies concern on emerging economies, because they are more vulnerable to such speculative attacks....

The article aims at introducing new methodology for recognizing suitable indicators to monitor the potential risk of extensive pressure on the exchange rate (early warning indicators) and for identifying vulnerabilities in an economy to this pressure reflected by simultaneous negative...

This paper studies whether the dynamic behavior of real GDP, unemployment and inflation is systematically affected by the timing of elections and by changes of governments in the Czech Republic. Two basic models of political cycles are tested – the political business cycle models and the...

The paper considers modern frameworks of public debt management from a credibility perspective. It focuses on the institutional and operational arrangements of effective debt management. In particular, the author seeks to shed light upon the contemporary problems of Czech debt manager compared...

In this article is studied hypothesis, that every period (time interval) before financial crisis is distinguished by co-movement of several variables. The study is based on monthly data (that means no quarterly data, like portfolio investment, were used). This hypothesis, tested with vector...

The Council of Economic Experts and its influence on the German economic policy are discussed in this paper. The first section concentrates on the institutional background and historical genesis of this body. Consequently, the importance of the Council in preventing a competitive and efficient...

V kvìtnu 2002 se konal 38. semináø ÈSE z øady semináøù ""Ekonomické teorie a èeská ekonomika"" s názvem: Argentina - vzestupy a pády?. Øeèníkem semináøe byl Jiøí Jonáš, poradce výkonného øeditele Mezinárodního mìnového fondu. Jeho vystoupení se zamìøilo na...

In attempts to explain the mechanism of a financial crisis of the third generation, the basic problem is to specify the basic causes of its emergence. In the text of the paper we have formulated a hypothesis saying that the basic cause of the emergence of a systemic financial crisis of the Asian...

The paper provides an introduction to essays published in this volume, which focus on nominal and real convergence in transition countries. The paper is based on the idea that the process of convergence can, to a large extent, be viewed via developments in real exchange rates. Key issues...