We show that the cusp catastrophe model explains the crash of stock exchanges much better than other models. On the data of U.S. stock markets we demonstrate that the crash of 1987 may be better explained by cusp catastrophe theory, which is not true for the crash of 2001. With the help of...

Estimation of volatility of financial time series plays a crucial role in pricing derivatives. Volatility is often estimated from historical data; however, it is well known that volatility varies in time. We propose a method to choose a suitable length of historical data to estimate contemporary...

The paper is concerned with the use of several methods that can be useful from the point of view of trend reversal in financial time series. These methods are demonstrated on PX index time series during 2002-2009. The research itself is subdivided into four parts corresponding to individual...

Monthly and yearly inflation rates can be understood as rates of dynamics of the basic inflation indicator i.e. the consumer price index. These indicators modify the original inflation information. It is important to analyze the difference of the consumer price index, monthly and yearly...

This paper begins with a description of simple select models of inflation and their ability to fit the data. The paper in turn measures the stability of particular parsimonious models. One-step forecast tests are applied, which establish the instability of the money demand model compared with...

The paper emphasizes how changes in credit conditions in the Czech Republic are likely to influence aggregate consumption. Aggregate consumption plays an important role in macroeconomic fluctuations and in the transmission mechanism. Czech household debt has increased in the past five years. The...

The article summarizes the main points discussed at the seminar on The Nobel Prize Laureates, 2003, held by the Czech Economic Association in March 2004. The seminar featured two main speakers: Josef Arlt (University of Economics, Prague, and Charles University, Prague), who lectured on the work...

Práce se zabývá analýzou poptávky po penìzích firem v ÈR a její výsledky následnì srovnává s výsledky analogické analýzy v sektoru domácností. Zjištìné odlišnosti v obou sektorech jsou pak komentovány zejména ve smyslu potenciálních problémù, které tyto diskrepance...

Tato práce se zamìøuje na specifika poptávky po penìzích domácností a analyzuje souèasné charakteristiky této poptávkové funkce vèetnì trendù dalšího vývoje, pøedevším vzhledem k potenciálním problémùm pøi výzkumu poptávky po penìzích na agregátní úrovni....

Modifying IS-MP-IA model by using EU economic characteristics allows for better interpretation of the results. Specifically, from the point of view of the IS and MP curves we obtain useful information about the influence of EU economy on the Czech economy (i.e. on its GDP). We may conclude that...