We show that the cusp catastrophe model explains the crash of stock exchanges much better than other models. On the data of U.S. stock markets we demonstrate that the crash of 1987 may be better explained by cusp catastrophe theory, which is not true for the crash of 2001. With the help of...

Kooperativní chování je nezbytnou podmínkou pro existenci moderních komplexních společenství a ekonomik, jak je známe dnes. Z pohledu společenských věd je proto zajímavé porozumnět, jak takové chování může převažovat i v situacích, kdy jednoduchá úvaha vede k opačnému...

Kooperativní chování je nezbytnou podmínkou pro existenci moderních komplexních společenství a ekonomik, jak je známe dnes. Z pohledu společenských věd je proto zajímavé porozumnět, jak takové chování může převažovat i v situacích, kdy jednoduchá úvaha vede k opačnému...

This paper considers various options replication methods. Firstly, a specific type of barrier option, an up-and-out call, is considered. Other barrier options are briefly also described, and various types of barriers are considered. Secondly, a general definition of replication methods is...

The article analyzes macroeconomic forecasts of tax revenue in the Czech Republic. Forecasts are tested for their biases on data from Czech Republic from 1993 to 2003. The authors argue that Czech tax-revenue forecasts were highly biased and the hypothesis of unbiasedness could not be rejected...

This paper studies whether the dynamic behavior of real GDP, unemployment and inflation is systematically affected by the timing of elections and by changes of governments in the Czech Republic. Two basic models of political cycles are tested – the political business cycle models and the...

This paper begins with a description of simple select models of inflation and their ability to fit the data. The paper in turn measures the stability of particular parsimonious models. One-step forecast tests are applied, which establish the instability of the money demand model compared with...

The paper emphasizes how changes in credit conditions in the Czech Republic are likely to influence aggregate consumption. Aggregate consumption plays an important role in macroeconomic fluctuations and in the transmission mechanism. Czech household debt has increased in the past five years. The...

The article summarizes the main points discussed at the seminar on The Nobel Prize Laureates, 2003, held by the Czech Economic Association in March 2004. The seminar featured two main speakers: Josef Arlt (University of Economics, Prague, and Charles University, Prague), who lectured on the work...